i turn my camera on

i'm so confused - is tonight opening night? is tomorrow opening day? it definitely feels like it, but technically it's neither, as we all know... whatever, i'm going to to stick with my man joe morgan, easily the most insightful, articulate and prepared tv analyst in the sport, who said on the espn telecast of the braves/nationals game, "i only recognize tonight. this is the opening of the baseball season in america," (thanks, Awful Announcing!). well then since the red sox aren't really 1-1 since joe morgan doesn't recognize japan (and why do i feel like he couldn't find it on a map either?), we'll treat tuesday night as the real, true, recognized opener and i will pontificate on the upcoming season (which didn't really start until this braves/nats game started - got it?)...

not too interested in making a whole truckload of predictions as it's the obvious, easy tack taken by every other baseball writer out there since the beginning of time... also, even though i read the sports illustrated baseball preview, there's no way i could possibly call what's going to happen in any of the non-al east divisions other than that the giants, padres, cardinals, pirates, reds, astros, marlins, nationals, a's, rangers, royals, twins and white sox all have no chance to win the world series... the orioles and rays have no chance either, though the rays appear to be on the upswing (and the o's, for a change, suck)... the blue jays aren't going to win it either, but i've definitely read a few people who seem to think they can somehow win the division... this would appear at first glance to be the severe head injury mode of thinking given that it's been 15 years since toronto was really any good and every year, something unforeseen happen to derail the train usually involving the pitching staff... also, they have new uniforms this year for at least the eighth time since joe carter hit that walkoff series winner against curt schilling's phillies... why do so many teams have to have so many uniforms? why can't they all just be like the sox and the (gulp) yankees? the biggest perpetrator of the too many uniform crime is probably the mets, who seem to have a different jersey to wear for each day of the week, home and away... i don't think there's really anything clever or funny to say about this as it's just distracting and annoying and reeks of ADD and should be outlawed at once...
but i digress... the blue jays latest new uniforms are lame but have nothing to do with why they will not win the al east... while the majority of the supposed pundits seem to like the sox - even most of the new york writers, according to gordon edes, enough folks like the blue jays to make me scratch my male-pattern balding head... as there have been for the past few years, there are injury concerns aplenty with the jays, starting with who else but a.j. burnett... burnett, who once threw a no-hitter for the marlins despite nine walks, who signed a 5-year, $55 million deal with the jays prior to 2006 yet has been on the dl four times already since then and missed time in the spring due to fingernail problems, is the key to the toronto staff and that could spell trouble... twice in nine years has he pitched 200 innings, once has he made 30 starts and never has he won more than 12 games (he's also never finished a season more than three games over .500)... why is there any reason to believe that anything will be different this season? and if it isn't, that puts even more pressure on roy halladay, staff ace, who is certainly one of the best pitchers in baseball but has had little to no support since his breakout season in 2002... there are young arms on the toronto staff who look promising but one - casey janssen - is already out for the year... the other starters, dustin mcgowan, shaun marcum and jesse litsch, ooze potential, but what does that mean? the blue jays also have a closer (b.j. ryan - what's with all these initial-named pitchers who can't stay healthy?) coming of major arm surgery who still isn't ready despite being on the shelf for nearly one calendar year, a center fielder (vernon wells) who is a supposed superstar but is coming off a miserable season that also happened to be the first of a huge new contract, a third baseman (scott rolen) who was the team's big acquisition in the off-season yet has been a shell of his former mvp-caliber self due to injuries for the past three years and is already out a month, and three other starters (frank thomas, shannon stewart and david eckstein) who are all on the other side of the hill... other than that, they look like champs-in-waiting...
now contrary to what all seven of you think, i didn't set out to write an anti-blue jays rant here (ok, maybe i did) - i just don't see how they can make the playoffs, especially out of the al east, unless everything breaks right and the sox and yankees each have major injuries all year... the jays have a lot of talent, some interesting pieces and a seemingly bright future, especially if halladay holds up and guys like aaron hill and alex rios continue to develop... but this year? not a chance! we'll get to see them this weekend when the sox hit skydome (it will always be skydome - not the rogers centre - in all its anachronistic glory) and those games won't mean much given how early it is... but down the road, when it gets hot and the games are more meaningful, toronto will undoubtedly take its rightful place - third...
so who does that leave? well the sox and yanks, naturally... both teams have questions, mostly based around (surprise!) pitching, though the sox lineup is far inferior to the yankees virtual all-star team... but i'm still going with the sox (again, surprise!) because for the yankees, in addition to having to worry about injuries (andy pettitte), old age (pettitte and mike mussina) and lack of balls (chien-ming wang), they also have to worry about lack of experience much more so than the sox, who may not have a more reliable rotation from top to bottom, certainly have the advantage as far as being there when it counts most... oh yeah, and they are also the defending champs and the yankees haven't won anything in nine years...

who knows, anyway? as i said before, predictions are easy and also riskier to make in baseball than in any other sport and for all i know toronto will win the world series thanks to the mvp-like performances of guys like a.j. burnett, b.j. ryan and vernon wells... we'll revisit in six months and if i'm wrong, i'll admit it - even though i won't be...